Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1468 MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2649 MIA 19:45 → DTW 22:57 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1468 Delta Flight history →	MIA 13:38	DTW 16:53	13%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 2548 Delta	MIA 18:28	DTW 21:33	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2649 American Flight history →	MIA 19:45	DTW 22:57	23%	8%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON