Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1864 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1864 MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 322 MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1864 United Flight history →	MIA 07:07	EWR 10:11	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 408 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	EWR 11:54	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	MIA 08:31	EWR 11:38	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 2433 United Flight history →	MIA 11:26	EWR 14:31	15%	4%	0.7%	94%
UA 1102 United	MIA 13:30	EWR 16:40	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2008 American Flight history →	MIA 22:00	EWR 00:59	23%	6%	1.3%	62%
UA 2029 United Flight history →	MIA 21:40	EWR 00:36	24%	6%	0.9%	72%
AA 322 American Flight history →	MIA 19:48	EWR 22:53	28%	9%	1.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON