tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AA 3435 at 21:25, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3435 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 21:25 GSP 23:24 13% 5% 1.2% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:16 → GSP 12:14DL 1725 6h 14m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → GSP 14:57DL 3010 6h 37m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:46 → GSP 17:45DL 3095 5h 40m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → LGA 11:52AA 605 2h 37m New York LGA 14:29 → GSP 16:27AA 4534 · flown by Republic 7h 27m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → GSP 22:55DL 2281 6h 09m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 11:26 → EWR 14:32UA 2433 2h 27m Newark EWR 16:59 → GSP 19:08UA 3584 · flown by Republic 7h 42m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 19:40 → GSP 20:39DL 3136 6h 30m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:19 → CLT 10:20AA 361 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → GSP 14:07AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont 5h 48m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323 53m Atlanta ATL 19:40 → GSP 20:39DL 3136 3h 53m 73% 64%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:45 → DFW 18:56AA 3259 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:50 → GSP 23:16AA 2992 6h 31m 64% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON