Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 2863 at 06:46, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2863 Southwest	MIA 06:46	HOU 08:21	5%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	7h 10m	99%	91%
American Details →	MIA 12:39 → DFW 14:51AA 1287	3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 25m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 05m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 17m	88%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON