tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, UA 2435 at 13:10, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → MIA 13:10 IAD 15:53 8% 3% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 51m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 5h 37m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 7h 49m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 31m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 42m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 3h 14m Chicago ORD 22:07 → IAD 01:10 +1UA 1922 9h 00m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983 2h 59m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 8h 52m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 3h 06m Newark EWR 15:00 → IAD 16:35UA 2301 7h 47m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 41m 96% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON