tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2252 at 15:44, 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2252 American Flight history → MIA 15:44 IND 18:43 33% 11% 0.9% 65%
AA 2518 American Flight history → MIA 20:59 IND 23:50 38% 12% 1.2% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 36m 99% 93%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 3h 23m Chicago ORD 12:31 → IND 14:41AA 4713 · flown by Republic 8h 01m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 6h 59m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339 3h 27m New York LGA 14:43 → IND 17:13DL 5646 · flown by Republic 8h 58m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 1h 43m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 00m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 13m Detroit DTW 20:06 → IND 21:25DL 4898 · flown by Endeavor 7h 47m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → IND 17:35DL 2979 6h 55m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → JFK 10:03DL 2428 3h 49m New York JFK 13:52 → IND 16:05DL 4984 · flown by Endeavor 9h 00m 99% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 5h 55m 56% 52%
AmericanDetails → MIA 18:51 → CLT 20:51AA 1577 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 22:00 → IND 23:39AA 1033 4h 48m 64% 50%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:10 → DCA 18:49AA 2716 46m Washington DCA 19:35 → IND 21:30AA 4520 · flown by Republic 5h 20m 0% 0%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON