Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 525 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 525 MIA 06:37 → JFK 09:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1794 MIA 19:42 → JFK 22:27 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 525 American Flight history →	MIA 06:37	JFK 09:32	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:05	JFK 10:03	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 2341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:37	JFK 11:37	7%	2%	0.7%	84%
AA 2062 American	MIA 10:41	JFK 13:40	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1473 Delta	MIA 12:05	JFK 14:59	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:17	JFK 18:50	16%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 944 American Flight history →	MIA 21:51	JFK 00:59	18%	6%	1.2%	64%
AA 2124 American	MIA 16:41	JFK 19:28	20%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2899 American Flight history →	MIA 15:12	JFK 17:55	22%	8%	0.9%	61%
AA 1357 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	JFK 23:01	23%	8%	1.2%	56%
AA 2600 American	MIA 18:48	JFK 21:30	28%	9%	1.3%	no record
DL 1794 Delta	MIA 19:42	JFK 22:27	30%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON