Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1490 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1490 MIA 08:28 → LAS 10:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3321 MIA 17:04 → LAS 19:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1490 American	MIA 08:28	LAS 10:48	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1173 American	MIA 13:42	LAS 16:04	20%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 3321 American Flight history →	MIA 17:04	LAS 19:15	25%	10%	0.7%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 13m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	7h 25m	96%	88%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:37 → LAS 11:34AA 1482	7h 34m	97%	84%
American Details →	MIA 07:37 → PHX 09:37AA 1983	1h 01m Phoenix	PHX 10:38 → LAS 11:53AA 2109	7h 16m	91%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON