Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2387 at 06:25, 6%.

Safest bet that day DL 2387 MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2271 MIA 17:20 → LGA 20:18 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2387 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:25	LGA 09:24	6%	2%	0.2%	87%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:15	LGA 11:16	11%	2%	0.7%	76%
AA 3205 American Flight history →	MIA 06:56	LGA 09:59	14%	3%	1.3%	90%
AA 2061 American	MIA 08:57	LGA 11:56	16%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 605 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	LGA 11:52	16%	3%	1.3%	88%
DL 1498 Delta	MIA 11:49	LGA 14:43	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2347 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:26	LGA 14:18	22%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 2424 American	MIA 10:13	LGA 13:11	26%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2484 American	MIA 12:23	LGA 15:21	28%	6%	1.3%	no record
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:29	LGA 18:45	32%	9%	1.0%	72%
AA 552 American	MIA 14:30	LGA 17:39	37%	10%	1.3%	no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:40	LGA 22:59	37%	8%	1.6%	57%
AA 1389 American Flight history →	MIA 20:40	LGA 23:44	39%	10%	2.1%	58%
AA 897 American	MIA 15:35	LGA 18:44	43%	13%	1.6%	no record
AA 2262 American	MIA 19:47	LGA 22:52	44%	12%	2.7%	no record
AA 2172 American	MIA 16:36	LGA 19:45	50%	15%	2.1%	no record
AA 2271 American Flight history →	MIA 17:20	LGA 20:18	54%	14%	2.7%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON