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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 670 American Flight history → MIA 20:35 MCI 22:56 27% 10% 1.2% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 2h 53m Newark EWR 14:47 → MCI 17:02UA 3436 · flown by Republic 9h 14m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 7h 13m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 2h 56m Detroit DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321 8h 11m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 09m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 9h 45m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:49 → MCI 18:56DL 1130 7h 51m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 8h 59m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:19 → CLT 10:20AA 361 2h 07m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → MCI 13:48AA 3233 6h 29m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:30 → DFW 17:39AA 1824 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → MCI 20:04AA 2267 5h 34m 72% 59%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:41 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → MCI 22:14AA 595 5h 33m 55% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON