Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1578 at 07:16, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 1578 MIA 07:16 → MCO 08:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1610 MIA 16:53 → MCO 18:02 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1578 Southwest	MIA 07:16	MCO 08:19	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 08:19	MCO 09:30	7%	4%	1.8%	97%
AA 2587 American Flight history →	MIA 10:47	MCO 12:02	13%	5%	1.3%	83%
AA 1635 American	MIA 13:49	MCO 14:58	28%	9%	2.3%	no record
AA 875 American	MIA 22:49	MCO 23:54	31%	15%	3.2%	no record
WN 3346 Southwest	MIA 16:35	MCO 17:39	39%	15%	2.7%	no record
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 20:17	MCO 21:28	41%	19%	4.4%	60%
AA 1610 American	MIA 16:53	MCO 18:02	46%	22%	4.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON