Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2866 at 15:54, 30%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2866 Southwest	MIA 15:54	MDW 18:03	30%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 29m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 10m	89%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	5h 51m	92%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 15m	72%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON