Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1551 at 16:25, 46%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1551 American Flight history →	MIA 16:25	MEM 17:55	46%	15%	1.3%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 14:13 → MEM 14:39DL 1942	7h 19m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 22m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 12m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	8h 23m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681	7h 22m	99%	87%
American Details →	MIA 07:09 → DFW 09:32AA 1454	2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:28 → MEM 14:05AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	7h 56m	100%	87%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 10:18 → MEM 11:13AA 1354	5h 49m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	7h 11m	98%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538	57m New York	LGA 19:42 → MEM 21:32DL 5606 · flown by Republic	7h 03m	65%	54%
American Details →	MIA 17:57 → DFW 20:13AA 2828	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:18 → MEM 23:03AA 1758	6h 06m	54%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON