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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635 9h 48m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 10m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:37 → PHX 09:37AA 1983 1h 22m Phoenix PHX 10:59 → ONT 12:30AA 2661 7h 53m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:59 → ATL 14:57DL 2836 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → ONT 20:41DL 2891 10h 42m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 12:39 → DFW 14:51AA 1287 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:46 → ONT 19:04AA 3006 9h 25m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:30 → DFW 17:39AA 1824 3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → ONT 22:52AA 1695 10h 22m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:01 → PHX 14:56AA 3172 2h 22m Phoenix PHX 17:18 → ONT 18:46AA 1666 8h 45m 97% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON