Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 581 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 581 MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2194 MIA 18:44 → ORD 21:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 1464 American	MIA 05:14	ORD 07:42	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3076 American	MIA 08:13	ORD 10:32	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	13%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 835 American	MIA 13:27	ORD 15:54	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2634 American Flight history →	MIA 22:07	ORD 00:26	16%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 21:08	ORD 23:20	19%	8%	0.8%	79%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 16:46	ORD 19:12	25%	9%	0.9%	49%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	25%	10%	0.9%	60%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	26%	9%	0.7%	59%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 18:44	ORD 21:05	28%	10%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON