Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2129 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2129 MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2795 MIA 17:02 → PHL 19:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2129 American Flight history →	MIA 06:45	PHL 09:38	5%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 551 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	PHL 11:55	6%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 2409 American	MIA 08:09	PHL 11:07	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1918 American	MIA 11:13	PHL 14:18	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2191 American	MIA 14:57	PHL 17:33	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 1204 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:21	PHL 00:27	19%	9%	1.3%	69%
AA 3274 American	MIA 20:06	PHL 22:57	20%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 3169 American	MIA 17:59	PHL 20:38	23%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2795 American	MIA 17:02	PHL 19:50	24%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON