Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1983 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1983 MIA 07:39 → PHX 09:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2982 MIA 17:40 → PHX 19:28 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1983 American Flight history →	MIA 07:39	PHX 09:53	11%	4%	0.3%	92%
AA 3172 American Flight history →	MIA 10:49	PHX 12:35	22%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 2107 American	MIA 13:40	PHX 15:46	26%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1138 American	MIA 15:59	PHX 17:55	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 2427 American	MIA 22:14	PHX 00:13	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2982 American Flight history →	MIA 17:40	PHX 19:28	34%	13%	0.8%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	7h 04m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	50m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 43m	85%	74%
American Details →	MIA 08:16 → DFW 10:29AA 1679	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:35 → PHX 12:16AA 359	7h 00m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON