Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1702 at 20:59, 26%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1702 American Flight history →	MIA 20:59	PIT 23:48	26%	9%	0.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387	3h 46m New York	LGA 13:10 → PIT 14:47DL 5715 · flown by Republic	8h 22m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353	7h 30m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	6h 52m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538	2h 35m New York	LGA 21:20 → PIT 23:09DL 5722 · flown by Republic	7h 40m	98%	92%
American Details →	MIA 15:12 → JFK 17:55AA 2899	2h 35m New York	JFK 20:30 → PIT 22:27AA 4611 · flown by Republic	7h 15m	95%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:54 → PIT 18:39DL 3122	6h 34m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	6h 50m	96%	88%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:43 → PIT 14:39AA 2664	7h 39m	97%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON