Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2321 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2321 MIA 08:28 → RDU 10:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1649 MIA 17:52 → RDU 19:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2321 American Flight history →	MIA 08:28	RDU 10:49	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 1286 American Flight history →	MIA 21:47	RDU 23:59	23%	8%	1.2%	62%
DL 2992 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:28	RDU 20:53	28%	8%	1.2%	65%
AA 1649 American	MIA 17:52	RDU 19:59	31%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON