Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 983 at 21:09, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 983 American Flight history →	MIA 21:09	RIC 23:37	25%	8%	0.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 12:34 → RIC 14:15DL 3152	7h 05m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	5h 56m	99%	93%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408	3h 40m Newark	EWR 15:34 → RIC 17:07UA 3639 · flown by Republic	8h 19m	99%	90%
American Details →	MIA 06:26 → CLT 08:36AA 3004	1h 58m Charlotte	CLT 10:34 → RIC 12:02AA 5119 · flown by PSA	5h 36m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	6h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:12 → RIC 21:54DL 1263	7h 45m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RIC 00:51 +1DL 1175	6h 51m	97%	88%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → RIC 14:41AA 1915	9h 16m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON