tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3010 American MIA 20:22 SAN 22:47 27% 9% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 10h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SAN 19:37DL 712 10h 32m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → SAN 12:19AA 3109 9h 54m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 29m Houston IAH 14:11 → SAN 15:40UA 1114 9h 52m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 10h 18m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 54m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → SAN 11:43DL 843 7h 33m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 11:26 → EWR 14:31UA 2433 2h 30m Newark EWR 17:01 → SAN 19:51UA 1626 11h 25m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 19:52 → SAN 21:35DL 819 10h 26m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 19:17 → LAX 21:49DL 450 56m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 73% 66%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:41 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → SAN 22:04AA 1511 7h 23m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON