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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1468 at 21:52, 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1468 American Flight history → MIA 21:52 SAT 23:59 30% 10% 0.8% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 44m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 18m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 28m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 2h 09m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 9h 14m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 50m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 13:10 → IAD 15:53UA 2435 1h 52m Dulles IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869 8h 12m 95% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 1h 57m Chicago ORD 11:05 → SAT 13:57AA 2845 8h 17m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 17:11 → SAT 18:36DL 2893 7h 31m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 22m Detroit DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365 9h 44m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:41 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 5h 19m 72% 53%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:45 → DFW 18:56AA 3259 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546 5h 18m 71% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON