tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:13 pm at Miami)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 647 at 21:05, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 647 American Flight history → MIA 21:05 SDF 23:42 28% 10% 0.3% 55%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:17 → DTW 16:15DL 1468 3h 30m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 55m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:40 → ATL 18:40DL 1323 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 22:34 → SDF 23:58DL 2624 7h 18m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983 2h 37m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic 7h 53m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:04 → SDF 21:32DL 2842 7h 23m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:54 → DCA 16:32AA 3034 3h 13m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 7h 46m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 2h 32m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 7h 49m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 13:13 → IAH 15:17UA 470 3h 21m Houston IAH 18:38 → SDF 22:06UA 4052 · flown by Mesa 8h 53m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 21:50 → SDF 23:16AA 1919 7h 15m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:55 → DFW 19:16AA 3259 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:18 → SDF 23:33AA 2426 6h 38m 73% 47%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:13 → DCA 18:51AA 2716 54m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 5h 27m 54% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON