Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:26	SEA 22:10	30%	8%	0.8%	60%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	MIA 18:20	SEA 22:00	30%	7%	0.9%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 40m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → JFK 10:03DL 2428	1h 27m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 45m	98%	89%
American Details →	MIA 13:43 → LAX 16:14AA 3014	3h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 20:00 → SEA 22:57AA 6371 · flown by SkyWest	12h 14m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	11h 55m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 00m	98%	86%
American Details →	MIA 13:01 → PHX 14:56AA 3172	2h 59m Phoenix	PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	11h 04m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 13m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 11:26 → EWR 14:32UA 2433	54m Newark	EWR 15:26 → SEA 18:28UA 1814	10h 02m	72%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON