Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1257 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1257 MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2347 MIA 21:01 → SFO 00:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1934 American	MIA 07:08	SFO 10:13	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2753 American Flight history →	MIA 09:17	SFO 12:00	13%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2347 American	MIA 21:01	SFO 00:01	22%	7%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 27m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	97%	84%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → SFO 10:28AA 1849	8h 03m	92%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON