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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:37, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:37 → PHX 09:37AA 1983 1h 50m Phoenix PHX 11:27 → SJC 13:26AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 8h 49m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834 9h 57m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 34m Denver DEN 11:34 → SJC 13:08UA 1256 8h 31m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 03m 92% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:30 → DFW 17:39AA 1824 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:20 → SJC 22:13AA 364 9h 43m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:01 → PHX 14:56AA 3172 1h 34m Phoenix PHX 16:30 → SJC 18:34AA 2094 8h 33m 91% 77%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 1h 07m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745 8h 25m 86% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON