Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1341 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1341 MIA 08:23 → SJU 11:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 3378 MIA 23:29 → SJU 02:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:23	SJU 11:13	7%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 1613 American Flight history →	MIA 11:39	SJU 14:24	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 967 American Flight history →	MIA 14:45	SJU 17:21	15%	7%	0.7%	60%
AA 1689 American Flight history →	MIA 18:04	SJU 20:42	22%	9%	1.2%	54%
F9 3378 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 23:29	SJU 02:13	26%	9%	1.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON