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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 976 Delta MIA 07:12 SLC 10:09 6% 2% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 9h 50m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:37 → PHX 09:37AA 1983 1h 14m Phoenix PHX 10:51 → SLC 13:31AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → JFK 10:03DL 2428 1h 11m New York JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 9h 16m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 9h 31m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 9h 57m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 2h 42m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 9h 00m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 27m Detroit DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15DL 2117 10h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 11:30 → BOS 14:59DL 1399 3h 46m Boston BOS 18:45 → SLC 22:11DL 445 12h 41m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323 47m Atlanta ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660 6h 51m 68% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON