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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 9h 59m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 10h 20m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → SNA 15:55AA 2659 9h 55m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:24 → SNA 17:51AA 3223 9h 51m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 46m Houston IAH 12:28 → SNA 14:15UA 1533 8h 27m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 12:19 → SNA 14:22UA 2441 9h 22m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 13:10 → IAD 15:53UA 2435 1h 41m Dulles IAD 17:34 → SNA 19:59UA 2319 9h 49m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 47m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 7h 56m 73% 63%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 9h 09m 70% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON