Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3954 MIA 14:47 → STL 16:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1594 MIA 20:54 → STL 22:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3954 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 14:47	STL 16:37	15%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 2456 Southwest	MIA 13:55	STL 15:47	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1594 American Flight history →	MIA 20:54	STL 22:54	22%	10%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON