Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1977 at 08:23, 6%.

Safest bet that day AA 1977 MIA 08:23 → TPA 09:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1921 MIA 19:50 → TPA 21:00 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1977 American	MIA 08:23	TPA 09:38	6%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1980 American	MIA 11:59	TPA 13:06	15%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1714 American Flight history →	MIA 23:13	TPA 00:19	31%	15%	2.1%	71%
AA 2798 American Flight history →	MIA 15:32	TPA 16:39	33%	16%	1.9%	45%
AA 1921 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	TPA 21:00	47%	21%	2.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON