tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 2716 at 21:45, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2716 American Flight history → MIA 21:45 TYS 23:59 23% 9% 1.0% 43%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 5h 10m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 6h 28m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:27 → CLT 08:40AA 3004 2h 31m Charlotte CLT 11:11 → TYS 12:34AA 5953 · flown by Piedmont 6h 07m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:35 → TYS 13:48AA 2544 6h 48m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 5h 11m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:49 → TYS 23:50DL 3072 5h 50m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:22 → TYS 16:38AA 2550 7h 38m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 6h 09m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:41 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51AA 1081 6h 10m 67% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON