tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 07:11, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:11 → DFW 09:34AA 1454 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:29 → XNA 13:52AA 3803 · flown by Envoy 7h 41m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:16 → DFW 10:28AA 1679 3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:00 → XNA 15:23AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 8h 07m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:08 → ORD 09:30AA 581 2h 17m Chicago ORD 11:47 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy 7h 34m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:26 → CLT 08:37AA 3004 2h 09m Charlotte CLT 10:46 → XNA 12:02AA 5446 · flown by PSA 6h 36m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → XNA 17:59AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 7h 59m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:31 → XNA 16:26DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor 6h 46m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:06 → DEN 10:47UA 2045 2h 43m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 9h 19m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:44 → ORD 18:18AA 3056 3h 08m Chicago ORD 21:26 → XNA 23:15AA 3941 · flown by Envoy 8h 31m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:40 → ATL 18:40DL 1323 52m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → XNA 20:26DL 1710 4h 46m 62% 52%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 50m Atlanta ATL 21:04 → XNA 22:00DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor 5h 00m 60% 51%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:59 → DFW 20:15AA 2828 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:07 → XNA 22:30AA 4101 · flown by Envoy 5h 31m 46% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON