Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 2230 MKE 09:35 → BOS 12:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest DL 5619 MKE 18:59 → BOS 22:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2230 JetBlue Flight history →	MKE 09:35	BOS 12:48	9%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 5614 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 11:35	BOS 15:05	9%	2%	0.6%	69%
DL 5619 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 18:59	BOS 22:26	12%	4%	0.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON