tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4864 Southwest MKE 07:48 BWI 10:53 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 887 Southwest MKE 14:58 BWI 17:55 5% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:05 → ORD 06:19AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m Chicago ORD 09:58 → BWI 13:03AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 6h 58m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 16m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 37m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 6h 04m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 5h 08m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 7h 28m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → MKE 07:01 → CLT 10:07AA 2866 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 12:25 → BWI 14:04AA 2733 6h 03m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → MKE 07:54 → IAH 10:44UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 1h 32m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 7h 36m 92% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON