Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3044 MKE 08:00 → DCA 10:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5637 MKE 17:57 → DCA 21:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3044 Southwest	MKE 08:00	DCA 10:59	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 5646 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 06:25	DCA 09:36	7%	3%	1.0%	84%
WN 3045 Southwest	MKE 17:05	DCA 20:07	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 5637 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 17:57	DCA 21:20	14%	5%	1.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON