Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3049 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 2–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3049 MKE 05:55 → DEN 07:25 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2879 MKE 17:18 → DEN 18:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3049 Southwest	MKE 05:55	DEN 07:25	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2876 Southwest	MKE 06:18	DEN 07:56	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
OO 5501 SkyWest	MKE 10:42	DEN 12:47	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2844 Southwest	MKE 11:45	DEN 13:17	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2878 Southwest	MKE 12:33	DEN 14:03	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 6028 SkyWest	MKE 08:42	DEN 10:22	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1969 United	MKE 14:38	DEN 16:14	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2879 Southwest	MKE 17:18	DEN 18:55	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON