Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2621 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2621 MKE 07:21 → DFW 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 869 MKE 17:28 → DFW 20:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2621 American Flight history →	MKE 07:21	DFW 10:00	7%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 2581 American Flight history →	MKE 12:11	DFW 14:33	14%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 869 American Flight history →	MKE 17:28	DFW 20:00	19%	8%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON