Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3102 MKE 09:35 → DTW 11:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3675 MKE 18:40 → DTW 20:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3102 Delta	MKE 09:35	DTW 11:52	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1729 Delta	MKE 09:38	DTW 11:50	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 3757 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:11	DTW 09:30	8%	3%	0.5%	76%
DL 1343 Delta Flight history →	MKE 16:47	DTW 18:59	8%	3%	0.5%	79%
OO 3981 SkyWest	MKE 14:15	DTW 16:31	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3675 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:40	DTW 20:57	12%	4%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON