Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3470 MKE 06:14 → EWR 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 3510 MKE 19:08 → EWR 22:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3470 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 06:14	EWR 09:35	5%	1%	0.8%	86%
YX 3448 Republic	MKE 11:28	EWR 15:00	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3510 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 19:08	EWR 22:30	11%	3%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON