tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 5536 at 07:54, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5536 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MKE 07:54 IAH 10:44 11% 4% 0.6% 76%
UA 6254 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record MKE 10:46 IAH 13:40 18% 7% 0.0% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Chicago ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231 5h 36m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:14 → EWR 09:35UA 3470 · flown by Republic 3h 01m Newark EWR 12:36 → IAH 15:34UA 2204 9h 20m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Chicago ORD 10:45 → IAH 13:38UA 2767 7h 18m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 48m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 6h 50m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 08:41 → DTW 10:57DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 1h 34m Detroit DTW 12:31 → IAH 14:18DL 1307 5h 37m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 18:25 → IAH 19:28DL 2327 6h 30m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MKE 06:14 → PHL 09:36AA 5200 · flown by PSA 3h 24m Philadelphia PHL 13:00 → IAH 15:20AA 2486 9h 06m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON