Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 5404 at 08:10, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5404 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MKE 08:10	JFK 11:21	7%	2%	0.9%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MKE 04:58 → ORD 05:58AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 07:52 → JFK 11:17AA 4590 · flown by Republic	5h 19m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	8h 39m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	7h 31m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 20:22 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	7h 03m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 35m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 17:42 → ATL 21:04DL 1206	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	6h 04m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → JFK 21:40DL 2378	5h 41m	97%	84%
American Details →	MKE 07:21 → DFW 10:00AA 2621	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:46 → JFK 16:30AA 481	8h 09m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON