Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1508 at 11:49, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1508 Southwest	MKE 11:49	MCI 13:19	5%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → MCI 10:29UA 1484	5h 29m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	6h 28m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	6h 57m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	7h 39m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660	6h 19m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 08:41 → DTW 10:57DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741	4h 43m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 17:49 → MCI 18:56DL 1130	5h 58m	99%	87%
United Details →	MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561	5h 30m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON