tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4159 Southwest MKE 06:38 MDW 07:38 5% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 220 Southwest MKE 15:13 MDW 16:24 8% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 11m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 04m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 7h 16m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 08:41 → DTW 10:57DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 4h 05m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 6h 10m 99% 58%
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 2h 29m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 5h 07m 90% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON