Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3804 MKE 09:59 → MSP 11:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2006 MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3804 SkyWest	MKE 09:59	MSP 11:38	5%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MKE 12:07	MSP 13:26	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
OO 4074 SkyWest	MKE 06:24	MSP 07:45	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3934 SkyWest	MKE 08:00	MSP 09:28	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3821 SkyWest	MKE 19:33	MSP 20:57	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MKE 15:59	MSP 17:21	8%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON