Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5799 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5799 MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 5648 MKE 17:29 → ORD 18:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5799 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	4%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 6261 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:05	ORD 06:19	5%	3%	0.7%	69%
MQ 4018 Envoy	MKE 11:29	ORD 12:28	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4035 Envoy	MKE 14:48	ORD 15:40	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 5896 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:20	ORD 07:30	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 5559 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 10:32	ORD 11:32	10%	3%	0.7%	63%
UA 5402 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:50	ORD 10:00	10%	4%	0.7%	74%
OO 4993 SkyWest	MKE 08:40	ORD 09:38	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6479 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:32	ORD 08:49	11%	4%	0.7%	70%
MQ 4096 Envoy	MKE 20:05	ORD 21:01	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 4803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:50	ORD 09:00	12%	3%	0.7%	78%
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 12:02	ORD 13:02	13%	5%	0.7%	69%
OO 4990 SkyWest	MKE 13:29	ORD 14:32	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 5640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 14:09	ORD 15:10	13%	6%	0.7%	65%
UA 5420 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:22	ORD 19:18	18%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 5648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 17:29	ORD 18:40	22%	7%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON