Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5200 MKE 06:06 → PHL 09:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest PT 6064 MKE 17:04 → PHL 20:17 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5200 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 06:06	PHL 09:21	5%	2%	1.0%	100%
OH 5181 PSA	MKE 11:05	PHL 14:20	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
PT 6064 Piedmont	MKE 17:04	PHL 20:17	13%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON