Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1137 MKE 07:08 → PHX 08:51 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 899 MKE 14:39 → PHX 16:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1137 Southwest	MKE 07:08	PHX 08:51	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4682 Southwest	MKE 17:21	PHX 19:20	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 899 American Flight history →	MKE 14:39	PHX 16:26	13%	5%	0.7%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON