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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 99% 90%
JetBlueDetails → MKE 09:35 → BOS 12:48B6 2230 3h 32m Boston BOS 16:20 → SAN 19:27B6 319 11h 52m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 23m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 08m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Detroit DTW 12:33 → SAN 14:26DL 761 9h 15m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006 1h 29m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:35DL 2145 6h 36m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAN 17:20DL 924 9h 09m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SAN 19:37DL 712 8h 39m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 57m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 6h 52m 67% 57%
AmericanDetails → MKE 17:28 → DFW 20:00AA 869 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → SAN 22:04AA 1511 6h 36m 73% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON