tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 507 at 14:59, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 507 Alaska Flight history → MKE 14:59 SEA 17:24 12% 3% 0.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 11h 05m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 49m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 6h 53m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 8h 38m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 9h 18m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903 11h 00m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Chicago ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099 8h 38m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 9h 35m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 6h 49m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Detroit DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 7h 20m 69% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON